UK Population Change

Geographers use a pattern or 'model' to describe and predict the way any country's population changes as the country develops. They have called it the Demographic Transition Model (or DTM) - Your textbooks may have details of each of its 5 stages.

undefinedExample of a Demographic Transition Model (DTM) - Pyramids

The UK has reached the late stages (4 and 5) , when it predicts that our population size will either stay about the same or could even start to go down.

undefinedThe cause of this population decrease is that chosen family sizes become very small (with just 1 or no children. As each generation grows up, there is fewer or no children to replace the two adults when they die. This basically means that Birth Rate (the number of births per year per 1000 of the population) drops below Death Rate (the number of deaths per year per 1000 of the population).

The UK seems to be different from other stage 5 countries. We seem to have returned to having an increasing rising population again.

Click on the next button to learn more about what is happening to our population.

A Demographic Transition Model (DTM)


Did you know?

Finding out about the UK? Where do you look for the official figures?

In March 2011 a UK national census took place and geographers, government and planners all eagerly await the results. It is taking a long time check and then publish the data.

Another source of data is the Office of National Statistics. This can be found on the web at http://www.statistics.gov.uk

At the end of August 2011 they opened up a new website that will allow you to search and find up-to-date statistics about every aspect of the UK's Economy, population society and environment. It is the first place to look if you are investigating UK geography.

At present there is an informative and useful focus area on Wales on the website.


  • Demography

  • Ethnicity and Religion

  • Welsh Language

  • Working Lives

  • Health & Caring

  • Country of Birth

  • Welsh National Identity

  • Welsh-born Living Elsewhere in the UK

  • 'Welsh' on Census form

  • Living Standards



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